pCTR Predictor — Google Discover

📐 Discover pCTR Formula (SDK-Derived)

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quality = Σ(wᵢ × fᵢ) 8 quality dimensions β_penalty = 1 − 0.35 × (clickbait_score / 10) raw = quality × β_penalty pCTR = 0.5% + (22% − 0.5%) × σ(0.65 × (raw − 5.5))

β Blindness Factor: From Google's LTV formula (LTV = bid × pCTR − β). Clickbait titles trigger high initial CTR but low engagement_time_msec. The feedback loop (Stage 9) reduces future pCTR. Our β_penalty models this: a clickbait_score of 7/10 reduces quality by 24.5%.

Entity Density22%

Topic Clarity18%

Informational Value16%

Freshness Signal12%

Engagement Depth10%

Title Formatting8%

Natural Authority8%

Visual Promise6%